Quantitative Issues in Cancer Research Working Group Seminar

Anuraag Gopaluni, PhD Candidate, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University

Methods for accurate real-time estimates of death in the context of reporting delays

Abstract: State-level mortality data in the United States is subject to reporting delays of up to 18 weeks, causing gaps between reported and true mortality in the short-term. Existing methods for correcting gaps from reporting delays do not appropriately account for seasonality or uncertainty in prior lags. We use Massachusetts DPH data to develop a model based on discrete-time survival modeling combined with smoothing that accurately predicts the true death count on a daily basis with appropriate measures of uncertainty.