Quantitative Issues in Cancer Research Working Seminar

Anuraag Gopaluni
Doctoral Student, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University

“Methods for Accurate Real-Time Estimates of Death in the Context of Reporting Delays”

ABSTRACT: A challenge of public health surveillance is tracking indicators in real-time when there are reporting delays. State-level mortality data in the United States is subject to reporting delays of up to 18 weeks, causing gaps between reported and true mortality in the short-term. Existing methods for correcting gaps from reporting delays do not appropriately account for seasonality or time trends in prior lags. I am using state-level CDC and DPH data from January 2017-December 2021 to develop a model that accurately predicts the true death count on a weekly basis, thereby reconciling the gap between reported and true deaths. Specifically, I will introduce non-parametric models that flexibly account for seasonality and trends to obtain unbiased estimates of gaps with appropriate measures of uncertainty.