Özge Karanfil

Visiting Scientist

Department of Global Health and Population

I am a systems scientist aiming to produce policy-relevant research by integrating management, systems and health sciences with a strong emphasis on empirical data-driven analysis and modeling. I have B.Sc. and M.Sc. degree in Industrial Engineering from Bogazici University, an M.Sc. in Physiology from McGill University, and completed my Ph.D. at MIT Sloan School of Management, System Dynamics Research Group. With a background in industrial engineering, management, and health sciences, I am drawn to systemic problems of chronic nature, which encompass typical constraints and approaches with important managerial implications for the societal domain, coming from medical or non-medical contexts. My training is multi-disciplinary; I have both collaborated and published with experts in management, systems sciences, health sciences, and engineering to solve complex managerial problems with important policy implications for the societal domain. My projects at HSPH include dynamic modeling of chronic and cardiovascular diseases for Malaysia; obesity and diabetes in the Middle East; global risk factors for hypercholesterolemia; and health systems research using complex systems methodologies, such as system dynamics, agent-based, and network sciences. My research experience and interests can be summarized in three major, complementary areas:
i) Dynamic modeling for policy analysis (public health, medicine, environment, sustainability, or any other complex system problem)
ii) Specific application areas in health policy and management as an overarching theme at various levels (micro, mezzo, macro), relevant to clinical/public health research and management (such as evidence-based guideline formation, cancer screening, chronic and cardiovascular disease management, disease biomarkers, physiologically oriented disease modeling, NCDs, cardiovascular diseases and obesity)
iii) The underlying theoretical and empirical methods to cultivate research in the first two domains

One of my main lines of research is the investigation of the universal problem of evidence-based development of sound and reliable clinical practice guidelines. The theory and resulting models I build are grounded in empirical evidence-base and use a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods and data, a dynamic modeling approach to complex systems, statistical data analysis, and other decision-analysis tools to explain long-term trends in population screening and related problems within the context of developed and developing countries. I have collected evidence for significant variations in screening trends in developed countries, and have been working on building novel models and policy decision support tools to inform and complement evidence-based Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPGs).

Please contact me for possible collaborations and available positions in my research group.
Email: okaranfil@ku.edu.tr and karanfil@hsph.harvard.edu

Koç University, Istanbul, Assistant Professor, Operations and Information Systems Group, CASE, 2018-
Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Dept. of Global Health and Population, Visiting Scientist, 2018-

Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Dept. of Global Health and Population, Yerby Postdoctoral Fellow, 2016-2018
Ph.D., Management Science, MIT Sloan School of Management, 2010-2016
Dissertation Title: Why Clinical Practice Guidelines Shift over Time: A Dynamic Model with Application to Prostate Cancer Screening, Link to Ph.D. thesis / Advisor: John D. Sterman
M.Sc., Physiology, McGill University- Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Physiology and Medicine, 2007
M.Sc. & B.Sc., Industrial Engineering, Boğazici University, 2005 / Advisor: Yaman Barlas

2232 International Fellowship for Outstanding Researchers, TUBITAK, 2020-2023
Koç -Harvard Fellowship at Center for Middle Eastern Studies-CMES, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, 2019
Co-PI for the Grant submitted to HMS Center for Global Health Delivery-Dubai w/ Prof. Rifat Atun
Lupina Young Researchers Award, Best paper in Health Applications, International System Dynamics Society, 2017
• w/ Paper: Karanfil, Ozge with Hazhir Rahmandad, Jack Homer and John Sterman, 2017, A Dynamic Model for Understanding Long-Term Trends in Prostate Cancer Screening, Proceedings of the 35th International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, MA
Harvard Chan Yerby Fellowship, Dean of Harvard School of Public Health, 2016-2018
Ida M. Green Fellowship, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010
MIT Doctoral Program Fellowship 2010-2016
Dana Meadows Award, Best Student Paper at 24th Int. System Dynamics Conference, 2006
• w/ Paper: Karanfil, Ozge, 2006, A Dynamic Simulator for the Management of Disorders of the Body Water Metabolism, Proceedings of the 24th International System Dynamics Conference, Nijmegen, Netherlands
Alma Mater Student Research Grant, McGill University, 2006
PhD Scholarship, TUBITAK, 2005
Best Undergraduate Student Paper, YAEM, 2002
Among Top 200 student, University Entrance Exam, 1997

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) 2011 – present
International System Dynamics Society (SDS) 2002 – present
• Guest Editor for the Special Issue of System Dynamics Review on Biomedical Modelling, 2020
• Healthcare Track Chair 2016 – 2017
• Policy Council Elected Member 2015 – 2017
• Health Policy Special Interest Group 2006 – present
• Biomedical Special Interest Group 2008 – present
Society for Medical Decision Making (SMDM) 2014 – present
System Dynamics Research Group, MIT Sloan 2010 – present
Public Health Systems Research (PHSR) 2015 – present
Academy Health (AcademyHealth) 2015 – present
Health Systems Global (HSG) 2017 – present
Socio-Economic System Dynamics Lab (SESDYN) 2002- present

QMBU301. Quantitative Methods for Business Administration, Koç University, Instructor (Spring 2019-2020)
15.736 Introduction to System Dynamics, MIT Sloan Executive MBA Program, Teaching Assistant (Summer 2013, 2014, 2016)
15.871 Introduction to System Dynamics, MIT Sloan School of Management, Teaching Assistant (Fall 2011, 2013, 2014, Spring 2013)
15.872 System Dynamics, MIT Sloan School of Management, Teaching Assistant (Fall 2011, 2013, 2014, Spring 2013)
ESD74 System Dynamics for Engineers, Systems Design and Management (SDM) Program, MIT, Teaching Assistant (Summer 2011)
1st Annual Institute on Systems Science and Health, Track Assistant in System Dynamics (Spring 2009)
IE 484 Simulation Gaming and Decision Experiments, Bogazici University
IE 306 Systems Simulation, Bogazici University
IE 255 Probability for Industrial Engineers, Bogazici University