Photo by: Pixabay user Free Photos

Solutions for preventing the next pandemic

07/23/2020 | Science

The cost of preventing the next pandemic is 2% of the cost we’re paying for COVID-19.

A study published in Science, “Ecology and Economics for Pandemic Prevention,” found that the costs of preventing future zoonotic outbreaks like COVID-19—by preventing deforestation and regulating the wildlife trade—are as little as $22 billion a year, 2% of the economic and mortality costs of responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, which some economists predict could reach $10-20 trillion. The paper, co-authored by our Director Dr. Aaron Bernstein, outlines how stimulus funding should be used to reduce the risk of disease spillover from animals to humans.

Read now in Science

Connections between deforestation, wildlife trade, and the rise of infectious diseases

    • Over the last 100 years, 2 viruses a year spillover from animals to humans.
    • Locations near the edges of tropical forests where more than 25% of the original forest has been lost tend to be hotbeds for animal-to-human virus transmissions. 
    • Wildlife markets and the legal and illegal trade of wildlife for pets, meat or medicine increase transmission. 
    • Investing $22-31 billion a year to monitor and police the wildlife trade and curb tropical deforestation can help prevent future pandemics.

Strategies

    • Remove subsidies favoring deforestation, restrict private land clearing, support territorial rights of Indigenous people
    • Strengthen and enforce the existing international conventions and increase funding for programs that monitor wildlife trade
    • Ban national and international trade of high-risk species like primates, bats, pangolins, civets, and rodents
    • Increase education, awareness on animal handling, sanitation, disease transmission and sustainable wildlife management and support for Indigenous people who rely on wildlife for food

Cost-Effective Solutions

    • Spend $500 million a year to expand and enhance wildlife-trade monitoring programs and technologies. 
    • Invest $217-279 million a year on early detection and control measures, including creating a library of virus genetics that could be used to pinpoint the source of a newly emerging pathogen early enough to slow or stop its spread.
    • Invest over $19 billion a year on programs to end the wild meat trade in China and educate consumers and hunters about its potential risks.
    • Invest up to $9.6 billion a year on programs and policies to reduce tropical deforestation by 50%.
    • Spend up to $852 million a year to reduce viral spillovers, or inter-species transmissions, in livestock.
Co-authors hail from Conservation International; the University of California-Santa Barbara; Boston University; Arizona State University; the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Harvard University; Earth Innovation Institute; EcoHealth Alliance; the University of Wisconsin-Madison; and World Wildlife Fund International. Duke Kunshan University; Rice University; George Mason University; the Safina Center; and Federal University of Rio de Janeiro.
Citation: “Ecology and Economics for Pandemic Prevention,” Andrew P. Dobson, Stuart Pimm, Lee Hannah, Les Kaufman, Jorge A. Ahumada, Amy W. Ando, Aaron Bernstein, Jonah Busch, Peter Daszak, Jens Engelmann, Margaret Kinnaird, Binbin Li, Ted Loch-Temzelides, Thomas Lovejoy, Katarzyna Nowak, Patrick Roehrdanz,and Mariana M. Vale; Science, July 24, 2020. DOI: 10.1126/science.abc3189

Primary Pandemic Prevention Costs 5% of Lives Lost Every Year from Emerging Infectious Diseases

Primary pandemic prevention actions cost less than 5% of the lowest estimated value of lives lost from emerging infectious diseases every year

Read Now

Protecting forests and changing agricultural practices are essential, cost-effective actions to prevent pandemics

Our new report outlines the strong scientific foundations for taking actions to stop the next pandemic by preventing the spillover of pathogens from animals to people.

Read Now

Solutions for preventing the next pandemic

The cost of preventing the next pandemic is 2% of the cost we’re paying for COVID-19.

Read Now

Want to prevent pandemics? Stop spillovers

World leaders must make spillover prevention central to 3 landmark agreements under development, writes our Director Dr. Aaron Bernstein.

Read Now

The Dawn of the Pandemic Age

We need to rethink how we address emerging infectious disease risks by stopping infections before they start, says our Director Dr. Aaron Bernstein.

Read Now

Increased infectious disease risk likely from climate change

Our Director Dr. Aaron Bernstein comments on a study showing climate change will increase the risk of emerging infectious diseases jumping from animals to humans.

Read Now

Research Shows Actions to Prevent Pandemics Cost 5% of Lives Lost Every Year from Emerging Infectious Diseases

Better surveillance, wildlife and hunting management, and forest protection can prevent pandemics at a fraction of the cost.

Read Now

As Covid-19 cases rise, global task force lays out how to avert future pandemics

New report suggests that investing in conservation, improving agricultural practices, and strengthening healthcare systems can help prevent future pandemics.

Read Now

Preventing future pandemics depends on environmental action, Harvard task force finds

Environmental efforts, such as forest preservation and wildlife trade regulation, are essential to preventing future pandemics.

Read Now

New report calls for preventing human pandemics at the animal source

Preventing the next pandemic by stopping the spillover of animal pathogens to humans would be far less expensive than fighting a pandemic after it begins.

Read Now

New Report from Harvard and Global Experts Shows Investments in Nature Needed to Stop the Next Pandemic

Protecting forests and changing agricultural practices are essential, cost-effective actions to prevent pandemics.

Read Now

Harvard launches international task force to prevent future pandemics

Our Director, Dr. Aaron Bernstein, discusses the Scientific Task Force to Prevent Pandemics at the Source, which aims to prevent pandemics by reducing the likelihood of infectious diseases transferring from animals to humans.

Read Now

How to stop the next pandemic before it starts

Being prepared for the next pandemic is important—but we should also be focused on stopping it entirely.

Read Now