CHDS Seminar with Tim Bedford: “Selecting a Structured Expert Judgement Approach: Uncertainty, Legitimation and Resource”

Abstract:
Despite the large literature around Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) approaches, there is a surprising lack of discussion around how one selects an appropriate SEJ approach for a particular context. This contrasts with the wide literature about combing multiple expert views to a single “representative” view.  Here we look at the role of uncertainty, legitimation and resources in understanding problem context and in motivating the selection of a SEJ approach.

Bio:
Tim Bedford is Professor of Decision and Risk Analysis in the Management Science Department of the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, Scotland.  He is also the University Associate Principal for Research and Innovation and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, Scotland’s National Academy. His research is across probabilistic risk analysis, uncertainty modelling, reliability modelling, structured expert judgement and decision analysis.