Causal Inference Book

My colleague Jamie Robins and I are working on a book that provides a cohesive presentation of concepts of, and methods for, causal inference. Much of this material is currently scattered across journals in several disciplines or confined to technical articles. We expect that the book will be of interest to anyone interested in causal inference, e.g., epidemiologists, statisticians, psychologists, economists, sociologists, political scientists, computer scientists… The book is geared towards graduate students and practitioners.

We have divided the book in 3 parts of increasing difficulty: causal inference without models, causal inference with models, and causal inference from complex longitudinal data. We are making drafts of selected book sections available on this website. The idea is that interested readers can submit suggestions or criticisms before the book is published. If you wish to share any comments, please email me or visit us on Facebook. If you wish to cite the book, please use “Hernán MA, Robins JM (2016). Causal Inference. Boca Raton: Chapman & Hall/CRC, forthcoming.”

Follow the links below to access different parts of the book:

  • Part I, Chapters 1-10 (updated 27 August 2015)
  • Part II, Chapters 11-17 (updated 12 February 2016)
  • References
  • NHEFS data, in SAS, Stata, and MS Excel formats
  • Codebook for NHEFS data
  • SAS programs for Part II
  • STATA programs for Part II, by Israel Agaku, Ehsan Karim, Jay Kaufman, and Eleanor Murray
  • R programs for Part II, by Justin Bohn, Susan Gruber, Ehsan Karim, and Robert Platt

Warning: These documents are drafts. We are constantly revising and correcting errors without documenting the changes. Please make sure you use the most updated version posted here.


We thank Stephen Cole, Sander Greenland, Jay Kaufman, Sonja Swanson, Tyler VanderWeele, and Jan Vandenbroucke for detailed comments. Goodarz Danaei, Kosuke Kawai, Martin Lajous, and Kathleen Wirth helped create the NHEFS dataset. Roger Logan is our LaTeX and SAS wizard. Randall Chaput helped create the figures. Rob Calver is our supportive, and patient, editor.

The following people have helped us improve the book: Kafui Adjaye-Gbewonyo, Alvaro Alonso, Katherine Almendinger, Ingelise Andersen, Juan José Beunza, Karen Biala, Joanne Brady, Shan Cai, Birgitte Frederiksen, Tadayoshi Fushiki, Leticia Grize, Dominik Hangartner, John Jackson, Luke Keele, Laura Khan, Dae Hyun Kim, Lauren Kunz, Martín Lajous, Angeliki Lambrou, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Giovanni Marchetti, Lauren McCarl, Louis Mittel, Hannah Oh, Ibironke Olofin, Robert Paige, Jeremy Pertman, Melinda Power, Bruce Psaty, Brian Sauer, Ian Shrier, Yan Song, Øystein Sørensen, Etsuji Suzuki, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Sarah Taubman, Evan Thacker, Vera Zietemann, Jessica Young, and Dorith Zimmermann.