Nicolas Menzies

Assistant Professor of Global Health

Department of Global Health and Population

Nick Menzies is Assistant Professor of Global Health in the Department of Global Health and Population, and part of the core faculty of the Harvard Center for Health Decision Science.  Professor Menzies uses decision science and quantitative research to understand the consequences of policies to combat major infectious diseases, and help design effective disease control programs when resources are limited.


Professor Menzies combines empirical data with mathematical modeling to examine infectious disease control policy in high burden settings, currently focusing on the intersection of HIV and TB epidemics in sub-saharan Africa and other high-burden settings.

In his empirical research Nick has worked to improved the level of evidence on the resource requirements for HIV interventions in high burden settings, allowing for better budgeting of these large programs and allowing decision-makers to weigh the advantages of different implementation approaches. Nick is currently working on a multi-country study to understand the costs, cost drivers and efficiency determinants of routine immunization services. Other applied work has addressed the costs and benefits of expanding access to HIV screening and diagnosis in high prevalence settings.

The long-term population-level impacts of disease control policy are often difficult to assess empirically, especially for infectious diseases. Yet these are often the outcomes of interest when planning major public health investments. Through a number of studies Nick has used mathematical modelling — computer experiments which seek to recreate the underlying mechanisms generating health outcomes and resource utilization — to compare competing policy options being considered by HIV or TB control programs and directly inform the policy debate.

Professor Menzies’s methodological interests include Bayesian approaches to calibrating simulation models, value of information analysis, the use of simulation models for causal inference, and approaches for synthesizing results from multiple models to inform policy.

Prior to joining Harvard Nick worked with the Global AIDS Program at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, conducting economic evaluation and implementation research on HIV/AIDS control interventions in countries supported by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).


PhD (Health Policy), 2014, Harvard University

Master of Public Health, 2005, Emory University

Postgraduate Diploma of Public Health, 2003, University of Otago

Bachelor of Dental Surgery, 2000, University of Otago


Menzies NA. An efficient estimator for the expected value of sample information (2015). Med Decis Mak Apr 24. pii: 0272989X15583495 [Epub ahead of print]

Chindelevitch L, Menzies NA, Pretorius C, Stover J, Salomon JA, Cohen T (2015). Evaluating the potential impact of enhancing HIV treatment and tuberculosis control programmes on the burden of tuberculosis. J R Soc Interface 12: 20150146.

Menzies NA, Cohen T, Murray M, Salomon JA (2015). Effect of empirical treatment on outcomes of clinical trials of diagnostic assays for tuberculosis. Lancet Infectious Diseases 15(1):16-17.

Hallett TB, Eaton JW, Menzies NA (2014). Beware of using invalid transmission models to guide HIV health policy — Authors’ reply. Lancet Global Health 2(5):e261.

Dowdy D, Houben R, Cohen T, Pai P, Cobelens F, Vassall A, Menzies NA, Gomez G, Squire B, White R (2014). Impact and cost-effectiveness of current and future tuberculosis diagnostics: the contribution of modelling. Int J Tuberc Lung Dis 18(9):1012-8.

Hallett TB, Menzies NA, Revill P, Keebler D, Bórquez A, McRobie E, Eaton JW (2014). Using modelling to inform international guidelines for antiretroviral treatment. AIDS 28(Supp 1): S1-S4.

Pretorius C*, Menzies NA*, Chindelevitch L, Cohen T, Cori A, Eaton JW, Fraser C, Golappa C, Hallett TB, Salomon JA, Stover J, White RG, Dodd PJ (2014). The potential effects of changing HIV treatment policy on TB outcomes in South Africa: results from three TB-HIV transmission models. AIDS 28(Supp 1): S25-S34.

Eaton JW*, Menzies NA*, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JAC, Humair S, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Mishra S, Mitchell KM, Nichols BE, Vickerman P, Bakker R, Bärnighausen T, Bershteyn A, Bloom DE, Boily MC, Chang ST, Cohen T, Dodd PJ, Fraser C, Gopalappa C, Lundgren J, Martin NK, Mikkelsen E, Mountain E, Pham QD, Pickles M, Phillips A, Platt L, Pretorius C, Prudden HJ, Salomon JA, van de Vijver DAMC, de Vlas SJ, Wagner BG, White RG, Wilson DP, Zhang L, Blandford J, Meyer-Rath G, Remme M, Revill P, Sangrujee N, Terris-Prestholt F, Doherty M, Shaffer N, Easterbrook P, Hirnschall G, Hallett TB (2014). Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models. Lancet Global Health 2: e23-34.

Keebler D, Revill P, Braithwaite S, Phillips A, Blaser N, Borquez A, Cambiano V, Ciaranello A, Estill, Gray R, Hill A, Keiser O, Kessler J, Menzies NA, Nucifora KA, Vizcaya LS, Walker S, Welte A, Easterbrook P, Doherty M, Hirnschall G, Hallett TB (2013). Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models. Lancet Global Health 2: e35-43.

Menzies NA, Cohen T, Lin H-H, Murray M, Salomon JA (2012). Population health impact and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis diagnosis with Xpert MTB/RIF: a dynamic simulation and economic evaluation. PLoS Med 9(11): e1001347.

Menzies NA, Berruti AA, Blandford JM (2012). The determinants of HIV treatment costs in resource limited settings. PLoS ONE 7(11): e48726.

Menzies NA, Berruti AA, Berzon R, Filler S, Ferris R, Ellerbrock TV, Blandford JM (2011). The cost of providing comprehensive HIV treatment in PEPFAR-supported programs. AIDS 25(14):1753-60.

Filler S, Berruti AA, Menzies NA, Berzon R, Ellerbrock TV, Ferris R, Blandford JM (2011). Characteristics of HIV care and treatment in PEPFAR-supported sites. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 57(1):e1-6.

Menzies NA, Salomon JA (2011). Non-monotonicity in the episodic random utility model. Health Econ 20(12):1523-1531.

Grabbe KL, Menzies NA, Taegtmeyer M, Emukule G, Angala P, Mwega I, Musango G, Marum E (2010). Increasing access to HIV counseling and testing through mobile services in Kenya: strategies, utilization and cost-effectiveness. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 54(3):317-23.

Menzies NA, Homsy J, Chang Pitter JY, Pitter C, Mermin J, Downing R, Finkbeiner T, Obonyo J, Kekitiinwa A, Tappero J, Blandford JM (2009). Cost-effectiveness of routine rapid human immunodeficiency virus antibody testing before DNA-PCR testing for early diagnosis of infants in resource-limited settings. Pediatr Infect Dis J 28(9):819-25.

Menzies NA, Abang B, Wanyenze R, Nuwaha F, Mugisha B, Coutinho A, Bunnell R, Mermin J, Blandford JM (2009). The costs and effectiveness of four HIV counseling and testing strategies in Uganda. AIDS 23(3):395-401.