How accurately have prediction models forecast cases and deaths during previous epidemics?


A review published in the European Journal of Epidemiology finds that during the Ebola epidemic, for example, when there was in increase in forecasting studies, the number of cases and deaths were overestimated by most of the studies.

“Only once COVID-19 is behind us will we know whether prediction models did better than their counterparts from the Ebola epidemic. Until then, it is critical that researchers communicate the contexts and uncertainties of their predictions to best inform policy and the public.”

Authors of review: Pranay Nadella, Akshay Swaminathan, and S V Subramanian