HIV Working Group Seminar

Emma Crenshaw
Doctoral Student, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics

Modeling the 2022 Mpox outbreak with a mechanistic network model

Abstract: The 2022 outbreak of MPox affected more than 80,000 individuals worldwide, most of whom were men who have sex with men (MSM) who likely contracted the disease through close contact during sex. Given the unprecedented number of MPox infections and the new route of infection, there was substantial uncertainty about how best to manage the outbreak. We implemented a longitudinal agent-based mechanistic network model to simulate the spread of MPX in an MSM population. This model allows us to implement data-informed dynamic network evolution to simulate realistic disease spreading and behavioral adaptations. With the ability to model individuals’ behavior, mechanistic networks are particularly well suited to studying sexually transmitted infections, the spread and control of which are often governed by individual-level action. We will present results of simulations of different individual-level and policy-level interventions, demonstrating the impact of network structure, uncertainty about clinical progression, and intervention compliance on intervention efficacy and overall epidemic trajectory.