Quantitative Issues in Cancer Research Working Seminar

Anuraag Gopaluni
Doctoral Student, Department of Biostatistics, Harvard University

“Methods for accurate real-time estimates of death in the context of reporting delays”

ABSTRACT: State-level mortality data in the United States is subject to reporting delays of up to 18 weeks, causing gaps between reported and true mortality in the short-term. Existing methods for correcting gaps from reporting delays do not appropriately account for seasonality or time trends in prior lags. We use state-level CDC and DPH data from January 2015-December 2021 to develop a model that accurately predicts the true death count on a weekly basis, thereby reconciling the gap between reported and true deaths. Specifically, we built both a non-parametric model and an estimator based on empirical lag patterns that flexibly account for seasonality and trends to obtain unbiased estimates of gaps with appropriate measures of uncertainty.